The continent that is ageing backwards

Africa's Youthful Population: An Opportunity in an Otherwise Ageing World

President trump’s recent obscene remarks regarding African and other black countries, sparked an outburst amongst those within the continent and the diaspora, and highlights the very retarded/subnormal and distorted, ignorant views most of the Western World have of African countries. This fact was echoed, more recently by a French journalist, asking the renowned Nigerian writer Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie during an interview if there were bookstores in Nigeria. Seemingly and understandably taken aback, Chimamanda had the perfect/epic response /clapback: ‘Well, I think it reflects poorly on French people that you asked that question’ .

The pilloried French journalist aforementioned “I ask because French people don’t know. They know only about Boko Haram”. This highlights the prevailing ignorance and pure lax attitude that some have towards educating themselves about Africa, its people and its diverse cultures. With the prevalence of globalisation and multiculturalism in today’s society, paired with the availability of the internet, it is deplorable to hold such views and to not make efforts to better educate oneself. News outlets and journalists play a huge role in telling the heterogenous narratives the continent possesses. 

It is thus important that we focus on the prospects of developing countries rather than the opposite. Which brings me to the focus of this article - To shine a light on the phenomenon of ageing populations, why it occurs and the many opportunities it brings for younger populations.

The world is ageing rapidly, more than ever before, meaning that the number of old people is growing at a faster rate than the number of young people. The World health organisation predicts that between 2015 and 2050, the proportion of the world’s population over 60 years will nearly double from 12% to 22% [http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs404/en/]  

‘And By 2020, the number of people aged 60 years and older will outnumber children younger than 5 years’, a shocking statistic and a historic first. [use a central quote] [http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs404/en/] 

This phenomenon is known as ‘population ageing’ and is used to describe the shifts in the age distribution (age structure) of a population toward people of older ages[http://www.encyclopedia.com/social-sciences/encyclopedias-almanacs-transcripts-and-maps/aging-population].This phenomenon is not only occurring/happening to the world [/affecting the world globally] it can also be seen in most of countries around the world. 

an ageing population (def.): A society is said to be relatively old when the proportion of the population age 65 and over exceeds 8 to 10 percent [http://www.encyclopedia.com/social-sciences/encyclopedias-almanacs-transcripts-and-maps/aging-population]. The map of the world below shows the percentage of people 65 years and above for each country. Countries with a percentage that exceed 8-10% are considered ‘old’.

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A shocking revelation/pattern that can be seen from the visualisation is that Africa is home to most of the youngest populations in the world. Take Japan and Niger for example, one of the oldest and youngest populations in the world, respectively. Just 2.55% of Niger’s population are aged 65 and above while in Japan this number is 26.56% [world bank]. That’s almost a 24% difference. To put this in layman terms, according to the CIA world factbook, Japan’s citizens are 47 years old on average almost 32 years older than Niger whose median age is 15 years old.Making japan the fastest ageing population in the world [<https://www.economist.com/blogs/banyan/2014/03/japans-demography>].

You may ask ‘How is it that African countries seem to house the most youthful populations while other countries, and the world, experience the opposite?, What does this demographic shift mean for younger populations, namely on the continent of Africa where most young populations are situated?’. Exploring the answers to these questions remains the premise of this article.

To investigate why most young populations were situated in Africa, various world indicator datasets were probed, for example, datasets relating to fertility, education, income etc. A school of thought states that there is a link between fertility and income [https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2016/december/link-fertility-income]. To explore this further, we gathered data relating to the GDP (gross domestic product) per capita and total fertility rates (TFR) of various countries. We then visualised this data using a scatter plot graph to investigate if there was indeed a relationship between these two variables [ see figure x]. It was found that there was a negative/inverse correlation between GDP and fertility rates across countries. Meaning that countries with a lower GDP had higher fertility rates, and countries with a higher GDP had lower fertility rates.

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From the graph one can vividly see that less developed countries (with low GDPs) such as Afghanistan, Mali, and Niger, tend to have higher fertility rates while developed countries (with high GDPs) such as Germany and Japan tend to lower fertility rates. High fertility rates increase the speed of growth of a population and hence the age of the population. Other related factors which contribute to decision to have fewer children include women’s empowerment, access to education, health care and increased life expectancy [https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10680-012-9277-y], which are in one way or another influenced by [a country’s] GDP. 

What does the age structure of a young and old population look like? 

To understand the demographic makeup of a population, one must look its population pyramid.  ‘A population pyramid illustrates the age and sex structure of a country's population and may provide insights about political and social stability, as well as economic development.’[<https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ni.html]. Taking an in depth look into Japan and Niger to perceive the age structural difference between an ageing and a youthful population. 

A population pyramid with a large base such as Niger’s [see figure x] indicate that there are high birth rates & death rates with short life expectancy. A country with such shape will have a high number of young dependents.

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The shape of Japan’s pyramid [see figure x] has convex side which indicates declining birth rates, low death rates and long-life expectancy. A country with such shape will have a high number of older dependents [<https://2puertadecuartos.wordpress.com/2017/05/05/how-to-comment-a-population-pyramid/].

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A population changes over time, hence, its pyramid (shape) changes with it, as nations develop, and life expectancy improves. Play the animation to see how these two countries’ population pyramid will change in the coming years [from 2016-2050].  Over time, Japan’s pyramid will take more of an upside-down shape, indicating a declining population[ http://www.bbc.co.uk/schools/gcsebitesize/geography/population/population_change_structure_rev6.shtml]

So, what are consequences of this phenomenon on the nations it affects, both young and old? 

Central Quote: . Of course, immigration for one country means emigration from another [<http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/17/magazine/17Aging-t.html?>

Mass migration is one of the most obvious effects/consequence of ageing and young populations. To visualise this, we gathered net migration data for various countries. From the graph below, it is clear to see that ageing populations [grey] generally have higher levels of immigration due to availability of jobs (as there are more older people) and young populations have higher levels of migration due to lack of employment (too many young people)*. 

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Other effects of an ageing population include increased availability of jobs, augmented health costs to the government, and lower tax base as there are more people in retirement than are working[ http://www.coolgeography.co.uk/GCSE/Year%2010/Human%20World/Youthful%20Populations/Dependency%20answers.htm]  

*This, of course cannot be demonstrated in every country due to immigration/migration laws and restrictions.

What happens to the manufacturing hub of the world? An opportunity for younger populations. 

From an external point of view, investors can target these young populations for investment as they provide a large and economical workforce and a hub for manufactured products. This comes as a result of the decline in workforce in ageing countries such as China.

Quote: As China ages, the mobility of its workforce will reduce further, said experts, forcing more factories to rethink their location.https://www.cnbc.com/id/49498720.

China is the manufacturing hub of the world. It has built its economy on this sector with the help of its cheap labour force, however, it is at risk of losing that title due to its ageing population. According to the United Nations, by 2050, more than a quarter of the population will be over 65 years oldhttps://www.cnbc.com/id/49498720. This rapid demographic shift occurs because of the one-child policy introduced in the 1970s [https://www.thoughtco.com/chinas-one-child-policy-1435466]. Consequently, many manufacturers are relocating to younger populations such as Vietnam and Bangladesh. 

Quote: today’s young countries like China will be the countries that in the not-distant future go shopping for younger workers in younger places . Those places will be transformed by satisfying an older China’s needs, and the cycle will repeat itself - <http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/17/magazine/17Aging-t.html?>

Could we see a shift in manufacturing from China(Asia) to Africa in the next coming years, making it the new manufacturing hub? Most definitely, the Chinese have realised their fate and have now started investing heavily in Africa [https://www.ft.com/content/0f534aa4-4549-11e7-8519-9f94ee97d996].

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From an internal standpoint, African countries can harness their mushrooming youth population to drive economic development which can in turn push the continent to be a world leader in the coming years. This can be achieved through:

improved access to education 

Women empowerment

This can already be seen in countries like Nigeria where a woman is 4 times as likely to be an entrepreneur than a woman in the U.S [Melinda gates no ceiling projects - https://twitter.com/melindagates/status/593528014639534080] [see figure x].

Increased availability of jobs

Improved health care 

Encouraging innovation and entrepreneurship 

The tech start-up scene is rife in West Africa [see figure] 

Sub-Saharan Africa is home to some of the most rapidly growing economies and populations experiencing the fastest rate of urbanization on the planet.  <https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2016/06/16/silicon-valley-watch-out-tech-thriving-africa/86009568/>

In summary, the phenomenon of ageing populations is one that is both fascinating and auspicious. Considering the factors that cause it to happen/occur and the in-depth study of the age structure of such populations are key steps nations need to take to prepare themselves for this rapid and lofty change. The opportunities for youthful populations which are mostly situated on the African continent are awe inspiring and promising. The ageing of populations, and the world at large provides younger populations with a chance to grow and develop which may put such nations on course to be a force to be reckoned with in the coming years.